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On March 29, the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced its Final Rule on emissions standards for heavy-duty vehicles, which includes Class 8 trucks and is applicable to the 2027-32 vehicle model years. The complete rule, published on April 22, has more than 1,000 pages and features various emissions targets for vehicles by model year depending on how a tractor or vocational vehicle is used.
For drivers and fleets, though, the most succinct and relevant top-line takeaway is that roughly 25% or more of long-haul trucks sold in the 2032 model year must be zero-emissions vehicles. For context, in 2023, a miniscule 0.3% of new heavy-duty trucks sold in the United States were estimated to be zero-emissions vehicles.
The government believes that the new regulations will prevent up to 1 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, and benefit overall health outcomes. It also doesn’t prescribe a certain technology for trucks to reach the standards, meaning that zero-emissions vehicles aren’t necessarily synonymous with electric vehicles. Observers have also made a point to recognize that the EPA rules don’t ban diesel engines.
Trucking industry groups weren’t as optimistic, with the American Trucking Associations calling the rules “entirely unachievable” due to a lack of charging infrastructure and demands that thousands of zero-emission, battery-powered trucks would put on the electric grid. Truckload Carriers Association President Jim Ward noted the trucking industry’s track record of reducing harmful pollutants over the years without sweeping federal mandates.
If you help operate or manage a fleet or are a driver, you may be wondering how the rules will affect your business today and in the coming years.
The EPA Final Rule technically applies to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and not carriers or shippers with private fleets. However, the implications are massive should the rules come into full enforcement.
Most important to fleets will be costs. Currently, costs of a new Class 8 truck are in the $180,000 to $200,000 range, on average. Estimated costs for a new, fully electric Class 8 truck are about double or more, at $350,000 to $500,000. Other zero-emission technologies, like hydrogen power, are just now being prototyped by European OEMs. The federal government offers programs to help fund the purchase of zero-emissions vehicles, but it’s unclear if the grants or subsidies can help make up a significant amount of the current price gap.
Even before the zero-emissions rule, OEM experts estimated that the price of a 2027 model year diesel truck will jump about $20,000 to $40,000 over the current price to comply with 2027 clean air standards that the EPA finalized in 2022. If fleets know they’ll need new tractors before the 2027 model year, time could be running out to pre-buy for 2026.
Additionally, the prospect of thousands of electric or hydrogen trucks on the road for the 2032 model year means that additional training and skills will be required for fleets to maintain their trucks. Electric truck OEMs will also need to significantly ramp up production in the intervening years.
Make no mistake, it’s worth preparing for the rules today, whether you have five trucks or 5,000. But while the EPA rules are “Final,” they are not set in stone.
Before the rules are fully enforced, industry stakeholders and those who stand to be economically impacted by regulations can seek clarification on anything in the Final Rule from the EPA. The Final Rule must also be reviewed by Congress and can be litigated in the court system.
About a month after the rules were released, the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee held a hearing on the EPA regulations. Testimony – even from proponents of the Final Rule – conceded that a significant amount of charging infrastructure is needed to support zero-emissions standards, even if OEMs can get enough trucks built.
On May 1, Senate and House Republicans submitted a resolution to disapprove of the emissions rule, but it stalled before coming to a full vote and missed a June 21 deadline.
Also in May, a group of 24 state attorneys general, led by Nebraska AG Mike Hilgers, filed suit against the EPA rule in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Keen regulatory observers in the industry may be interested to know that another group led by Hilgers concurrently filed suit against the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) Advanced Clean Fleets rule, which mandates that all heavy-duty vehicles manufactured in California are to be zero-emission vehicles in the 2036 model year.
“This effort … will devastate the trucking and logistics industry, raise prices for customers, and impact untold number of jobs across Nebraska and the country. Neither California nor the EPA has the constitutional power to dictate these nationwide rules to Americans. I am proud to lead our efforts to stop these unconstitutional attempts to remake our economy and am grateful to our sister states for joining our coalitions,” said Hilgers.
Last month, the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) filed a separate suit with three other trade associations in the D.C. Circuit to halt the emissions rules. Most recently, on July 2, 157 members of Congress sent a letter to the EPA and the White House urging the executive branch to rescind the rule. That seems unlikely, given that the rule is consistent with the EPA’s recent actions of moving away from traditional fuels and power plant sources.
For now, the best chance for the rules to be reversed may be in the federal court system, which could take a while, especially if litigated up to the Supreme Court. Additionally, the rule could be reversed should a new president take office in January 2025, as was the case with some EPA rules from 2017-21. That, too, could be a lengthy process.
Transflo has helped fleets for over 30 years and has seen many regulatory battles take place in the industry. We can’t guarantee what kind of engine or power source your trucks will use in 2027 or 2032. But we’re confident that when that time comes, we’ll offer a mobile app that simplifies work for drivers, intuitive and insightful telematics services to help manage fleets, and a range of dash cams that put safety and driver performance at the forefront.
